Queen City and New Hampshire poised for modest growth in 2025, economist says

The Manchester area’s biggest area of job growth is high-paying industries such as professional and scientific services, and health care, according to state economist Brian Gottlob. (Photo by Allegra Boverman)

Brian Gottlob started off his economic forecast for the Greater Manchester Chamber by saying upfront that he’s not a political person and that his talk would be “strictly from an economic perspective.”

“It’s very difficult to talk about some of the things affecting the economy without having it appear as though it’s from a political or ideological approach,” said Gottlob, director of the New Hampshire Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, during his Thursday webinar talk.

The economist’s overall assessment:

• New Hampshire is faring better than the nation and its neighbors, with job and economic growth holding steady.

• Gottlob is not predicting a recession in 2025, though he adjusted his growth projections downward. New Hampshire will grow 0.8% this year, trailing the nation’s gross domestic product 1.6% rate.

• The state would be attracting even more workers if it could meet the demand for housing.

With the Trump administration’s daily menu of executive orders — from tariffs to mass layoffs of government workers — the level of uncertainty rippling through the economy has made it extra challenging for anyone trying to forecast where we’re heading.

While presenting an overall positive outlook for Manchester and New Hampshire, Gottlob acknowledged the threats we are facing from federal policy initiatives.

“I thought New Hampshire was starting 2025 with some real solid economic momentum in terms of job growth. We are starting to see some cracks in how businesses view their circumstances,” Gottlob said.

On the positive side, job losses remain low, particularly in New Hampshire. The Queen City also was “standout performer” in terms of entrepreneurial activity, as measured by the formation of new businesses, particularly those that expect to hire workers.

The Manchester area’s biggest area of job growth is high-paying industries such as professional and scientific services, and health care. The No. 1 high-demand job in the state is nursing, based on job placement ads. “Registered nurses is the top occupation in demand in almost every region of the state,” he said.

While the labor market is cooling, demand for high-paying jobs continues to be strong, he said.

“Overall, the demand for labor, not just in Manchester but in New Hampshire, is easing. And nationally companies are becoming a little bit more cautious,” Gotttlob said. “But what I see is that those higher skill occupations that demand higher levels of education and computers and health care occupations are in strong demand.”

The size of the state’s workforce is still 1% smaller than it was prior to the pandemic, Gottlob noted. By contrast, the nation has regained its pre-pandemic