The National Retail Federation predicts holiday spending will increase 2.5% to 3.5% this year

Bonbon boxes, loose-leaf tea and toys galore are some of the items shoppers have found at New Hampshire businesses this holiday season, spending amounts on par with pre-pandemic numbers, retailers and a state advocate reported in the last few weeks of December.

Littleton business owner Clare Brooks says her 10-person staff worked hard to prepare Little Village Toy & Book Shop for Black Friday and beyond, with the store participating in the post-Thanksgiving promotion day for the first time this year.

“We’ve been within two percentage points of the whole year (in sales) coming into it,” Brooks said on Dec. 12. “I feel like everybody on the team has done everything they can to get the shop ready.

The only thing I’m seeing is a little bit of a decline in foot traffic and sales.”

The small decline follows the shop’s strongest-ever year in sales, with Brooks viewing 2024 as a “post-COVID reset” to stabilize a period of rapid growth that began in 2020.

Observations like those align with what Curtis Picard, president of the NH Retail Association, says he anticipated going into the fourth quarter.

He cited the National Retail Federation’s prediction that American holiday spending will increase 2.5% to 3.5% this season, meaning the organization expects sales to rise from nearly $956 billion last year to between $979 billion and $989 billion this year.

“Any time it’s positive, that’s a good thing, but certainly it’s not the same high level that it was in the post-COVID years when we were seeing significant increases year-over-year,” Picard said. “People weren’t spending as much money on other things like travel, experiences and concerts. They were more relying on things.”

But as people have sought out seasonal events once more, some retailers have tapped into adding these experiences into their stores to entice customers. That’s the case for Shadow and Soul Emporium and Tea Lounge in Keene, whose owner Brandie Wells has introduced an alternative to the tradition of photos with Santa Claus.

Instead of a jolly man in red and white, families turn out to meet and greet a horned half-goat, half-devil figure hailing from Germany and central Europe.

“We scheduled Krampus to come for free photo opportunities, but we also booked some tea and story time with Krampus, which one of them has already sold out,” Wells said. “Some people call him the ‘anti-Santa,’ but he really represents the ego in all of us. He only takes the children who stop believing in Christmas, so it’s to teach children to continue to believe.”

Board and card games line shelves decorated for the holidays in Littleton store Little Village Toy & Book Shop, which saw record sales last winter. This year, owner Clare Brooks says Jellycat plush toys have proven popular items. (Courtesy)

It’s proven a beneficial move for the Monadnock Region metaphysical shop, where Wells said that “sales are down significantly, unfortunately” from 2023, despite the business merging what were formerly twin storefronts with eclectic and gothic flairs into one space last year. While sales on “Plaid Friday” — the region’s “buy local” alternative to Black Friday — were overall strong, they also remained down 20%, she said.

“My average sale last year was $32. This year, the average sale so far has been $24.25,” Wells said two weeks from Christmas Day. “When I look at what people are buying, they are buying more lower-cost items.” The merger also introduced the store’s tea lounge, which was in its early stages of opening last holiday season but is now fully operational.

“Tea is our No. 1 seller, and on the retail end it has helped the business having tea because … it’s only $4 an ounce, people are getting something healthy, and they’re having an experience when they have it,” Wells said. “They get a sense of taking care of themselves and their well-being. Now, we have 135 different teas.”

Drinks are also a draw this season for Dancing Lion Chocolate on Manchester’s Elm Street, where owner Richard Tango-Lowy and his small but steadfast group of four chocolatiers create drinking chocolate in-house, from cacao beans sourced directly from countries like Mexico, Bolivia and Vietnam, his newest nation with a partnered farm.

The drinking chocolate and shop were recently venerated in “Wild Chocolate,” a book by Rowan Jacobsen that hit bookstores nationwide in October telling the stories of heirloom cacao beans, used to create chocolates via methods that Olmec peoples practiced 4 millennia ago in Mesoamerica, or modern-day Mexico. Tango-Lowy himself even chairs the Heirloom Cacao Preservation Fund.

The humble business was also recently named “Confectionary Store of the Year” by Luxury Travel Guide, topping 90,000 global submissions. The honor means Dancing Lion isn’t just a Queen City hot spot for specialty chocolates; it gets national and international sales online.

“We’re always busy, even in summer, but sales start to ramp up in October,” Tango-Lowy said from his store on Monday as it was closed to allow more chocolate production.

“Around Thanksgiving, it kicks up, and again about two to three weeks before Christmas, people are starting to buy gifts. Then, we shut off the online because we’ll be slammed next week for in-shop (customers).”

Tango-Lowy estimated that sales would be up 20% from 2023 by the end of the season. At the start of the week before Christmas, he pointed out a handful of bonbon boxes on display for sale he guessed would be sold out by Saturday, even as he and his team would be making more bonbons over the next few days.

“About a week before Christmas, we have to stop boxes (selling online), because we had one year when we had suddenly gotten much more popular that we just had no boxes and couldn’t even make them,” he said. “People were coming in and looking distraught.”

Richard Tango-Lowy, owner of Dancing Lion Chocolate in Manchester, looks over edible painted chocolates with winter scene designs and a gift basket. But more than those, he says bonbon boxes have been sellouts during the holiday season. (Photo by Trisha Nail)

It’s an indicator that even as online sales prove valuable to local retailers, their owners must balance their digital audiences with their face-to-face customers.

Picard, at the NH Retail Association, said that’s important as he sees signs that younger adults among Gen Z “appreciate shopping in stores a little bit more than perhaps the millennials.”

“They’re turning into a significant buying group,” Picard said. “They don’t shop exclusively at stores, of course, but it’s nice to see that the younger generation is appreciating what we call the experiential store experience.”

He said he also feels New Hampshire consumers understand that local shops are more challenged than larger retail companies and want to ensure their viability by supporting them over chain businesses, as did Wells.

“I love how people are intentionally shopping local, and have even had conversations with them about how they don’t want to lose small businesses downtown,” Wells said. “They’re taking a stance to buy less online and less from big box stores.”

As the state’s retailers look toward the 2025 holiday season, some wonder whether tariffs might be one of those challenges. Following his election win, President-elect Donald Trump has spoken about imposing a 60% tariff on imported Chinese products, and a possible 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico.

On the national level, this move has toymakers concerned, as the cost would be shifted to consumers, resulting in higher-priced items in stores, NPR reported earlier this month. Attractive prices can be necessary for a local toy outlet like Brooks’ Little Village to keep people coming in rather than seeking other businesses or eyeing online shopping for better deals.

“I can’t imagine any small business not thinking about tariffs, but especially the toy industry, because a lot of stuff is made in China,” Brooks said.

“A lot of people want that (lower) price point, and you’re not always able to get that price point when things are made in America. … I don’t think it’s going to be a January 1 hit, but my intention is to stock up fast and full early, right off in the new year.”

Brooks said she began ordering for the 2024 holiday season as early as February but noted that ordering timeframes are sometimes company-dependent. Lego, for example, asks independent businesses like Brooks to order their planned bulk stock a year in advance but allows smaller orders to fill in empty inventory.

In another case, Brooks had to ensure she would have enough plush toys from the popular brand Jellycat months ahead of the holidays, as customers have asked if she has specific animals and items the company renders in stuffed form — a first, she added.

“It’s insanely expensive, and they demand a higher margin on their (suggested retail price) than a lot of companies,” Brooks said. “But if you don’t order up enough, it has gone so fast.”

Going into the season, Little Village was ready for this year’s influx of purchases, with products floor to ceiling in the back of the business and on some shelves.

“We were way stocked by November, and have been receiving minimal shipments along the way to fill in here and there,” Brooks said.