So far in New Hampshire, the Fed’s interest rate cut in September that was meant, in part, to ignite a more balanced housing market by lowering home mortgage interests has been a dud.
On Sept. 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 50-basis point (bps) interest-rate reduction, marking the first cut in four years. And the mortgage market responded ... for a little while.
Realtor.com data shows that, by Oct. 8, the average 30-year fixed mortgage in the Granite State was down to 6.40%. But by the beginning of November, that rate had risen to 7%.
“It took 10 months of 2024 for the Fed to cut rates 50 basis points. While we waited for these predicted cuts, mortgage rates were actually coming down from the high of 8% in November of 2023. During this time, home prices continued to increase and buyers continued to buy,” said Joan McIntire, president of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors (NHAR).
“Unfortunately,” she added, “we are not seeing the substantive increase in supply that is needed to achieve a balanced market. An increase of existing home sales will help, but what is really needed is new housing. With a predicted shortfall of 60,000 housing units by 2030, buyers will continue to find few choices and high prices when looking for a home.”
A “basis point” in interest rates is a unit of measurement representing 1/100th of a percentage point. So, when the Federal Reserve announced a 50 bps reduction, that translated to a half percent or 0.5%.
On Nov. 6, hot on the heels of the national presidential election, the Fed, as expected, cut the rate again, but by only half as much as September. It shaved off 0.25 percentage points.
The
hope with lower mortgage rates was that current owners — who’ve been
sitting on the sidelines the past few years — would be motivated to put
their homes on the market as they went shopping for a new home
themselves. More homes on the market might increase supply, thereby
reducing demand, easing prices, and making a home purchase generally
more affordable.
But, like the interest rates, the affordability hasn’t changed much.
The
October residential real estate report from NHAR shows that
affordability remains an issue in the New Hampshire housing market.
A
data point called the affordability index uses 100 as the indicator
that a family with an average median income has just enough money to
afford a house or condo in a particular market. The lower the number
from 100, the less affordable the property.
New
Hampshire’s affordability index in October, according to NHAR, was 61
for a single-family home and 77 for a residential townhouse/condominium.
The index for a house reached an all-time low of unaffordability, 55,
in June.
The median
price of a house improved a bit from September. The NHAR reported an
October single-family median of $500,750, down from September’s $515,000
but an increase of 4.6% from October 2023.
Condos
in October, on the other hand, reached a 2024 high of $430,500 in the
Granite State, up 7% from 2023 and up significantly from September’s
median of $403,000.
Another
important measure of the availability of housing is months supply.
Months of supply is the number of months it would take to sell all
current listings on the market if no new units were added. In a balanced
number, the months of supply would be four to six months.
The
months of supply in New Hampshire for a single-family in October was
2.3, while the months supply for a condo was 2.1, according to the NHAR.
“The
housing affordability and availability issue seems to be in the news
every day,” said McIntire, noting that housing affordability has been a
catchphrase for any number of campaigns during this year’s election
cycle. The NHAR does not make endorsements in political campaigns.
McIntire remains convinced, as she has expressed throughout her 2024
presidency, that easing restrictive local zoning is a true solution to
more supply.
“Candidates
at the state and national level recognize that it is a problem that is
not going to be remedied on its own. My sincere hope is that 2025 will
yield the zoning changes we need to give first-time buyers the
opportunity to invest in New Hampshire by purchasing their first home,”
said McIntire, an associate broker at Coldwell Banker J. Hempe
Associates in Concord.
In
the state’s most expensive region — the Seacoast — the median price of a
single-family home was $903,500 in October, 34.8% from 2023 and only
the second time in 2024 that the median has topped $900,000, as reported
by the Seacoast Board of Realtors.
The
board takes its data from the sample communities of Exeter, Greenland,
Hampton, Hampton Falls, New Castle, Newfields, Newington, North Hampton,
Newmarket, Portsmouth, Rye, Seabrook and Stratham.
It
said there were a total of 67 single-family sales. Of that number, 30
sold for $1 million or more. There were seven sales of homes priced at
$400,000 or less.
The median price of a condominium in the region was $540,050, an increase of 3.8% from 2023.