Looking forward to the Sept. 10 New Hampshire state primary, the scene is becoming a little clearer, although change and surprise seem to be the theme of 2024.
In the last month, former President Trump was the target of an assassin, went through the Republican convention, and chose J.D. Vance as his running mate. President Joe Biden withdrew, Kamala Harris became the nominee and chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate.
The old, rambling candidate now is Trump, who frustrated even his devoted fans when his relatively disciplined 3,000-word acceptance speech became a 13,000-word free-association campaign diatribe lasting over 90 minutes, instead of the planned 30.
Vance, the inexperienced senator from Ohio, got off to a rocky start as quotes from prior speeches got a lot of attention. Harris, unknown to most people except as the loyal vice president, injected a lot of energy into the campaign. Her policy positions, however, have yet to be seen.
In New Hampshire, the biennial state primary field was set during the filing period, and campaigns are ramping up with major candidate television ads, yard signs, mailers and occasional debates. There will be a new governor and new member of Congress from District 2, with the retirements of the incumbents. Control of the Executive Council, House and Senate will be determined, along with county offices.
In the race for governor, Democrats Cinde Warmington and Joyce Craig are the leading candidates, with it looking like Craig is more visible in Manchester and its surrounding suburbs, since she was mayor, with Warmington better known in the rest of the state, as the Executive Council member from one-fifth of the state.
On the GOP side, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte seems more visible than former state Senate President Chuck Morse, although Morse has hitched his star to that of Trump. As seeming front-runner, Ayotte is increasingly the target of political action committees seeking to derail her apparent status. Four other candidates seeking the GOP nomination, but none has a chance.
There is no U.S. Senate seat up for election this year, so focus is on the two congressional races. In the 1st District, incumbent Chris Pappas appears safe as the Democratic candidate, with only one unknown opponent.
On the GOP side, there are seven candidates. Former senator and executive councilor Russ Prescott has run a professional campaign and started early. Businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky is running, although her campaign has been largely invisible. Manchester maverick Alderman Joe Kelly Levasseur, who jumped into the race at the last minute, is unknown outside of the city. There are four other candidates, although none is a household name throughout the district. The GOP should have a shot at winning the seat, so selection of the right candidate will be critical to its chances.
In the 2nd District, with the retirement of Annie Kuster, the race is between often-candidate Colin Van Ostern, former executive councilor, candidate for governor and secretary of state, and newcomer Maggie Goodlander.
Goodlander has a resume almost unmatched among candidates. She s a member of the prominent Tamposi family of Nashua; is married to Jake Sullivan, national security advisor; and has held many important positions in government and academia.
On the GOP side, there are 13 candidates seeking the nomination, with only businessman Vikram Mansharamani having much name recognition or apparent financing. Whether the nomination is valuable in what is now an apparent Democratic district will be fascinating to see.
The Executive Council districts were redrawn by the GOP-controlled Legislature in 2021 to favor Republicans in several districts, and Democrats in District 2, being vacated by Cinde Warmington.
Interesting candidates include Manchester School Board Vice Chair Jim O’Connell and former HHS Commissioner John Stephen running for the nominations in District 4, for the seat being vacated by Ted Gatsas, Mike Liberty and Karen Liot Hill seeking the Democratic nomination in District 2, the safe Democratic district, and Melanie Levesque and Shoshanna Kelly seeking the Democratic nomination to face incumbent GOP Councilor David Wheeler in District 5.
Whether the council GOP majority can be lessened or even overturned is important to the operation of state government, given the power of the council.
In the state Senate, only two of the 24 districts have contests in the Democratic primary, and only one in the Republican primary. In the House, with its 400 members and tiny GOP majority, selecting strong candidates in the primary probably will determine the majority, along with coattails of candidates up-ballot.
Everyone should start paying attention.
Brad Cook is a Manchester attorney. The views expressed in this column are his own. He can be reached at bradfordcook01@gmail.com.