Warming trends means visitors to NH compete for fewer snow-covered days

Skiers prepare for the descent while North Face skier and course leader Caite Zeliff, center, shares her winter wisdom. (Photo by Jill Armstrong)

Underneath a partly cloudy sky, featuring warming breaks of sunshine, a group of winter enthusiasts hiked alongside the Cog Railway. On alpine touring and splitboard setups, they were participating in “Women of the Wild,” one of the many experiential adventure courses offered during the annual Mount Washington Backcountry Ski Festival.

Soon into their ascent, they removed vests and midlayers, unzipped vents in their outerwear, and eventually sported T-shirts only, making their way toward the day’s destination at Jacob’s Ladder, the steepest railroad trestle in the world.

At this point in the story, it’s probably important to note that the date was Feb. 10, and the temperatures at mid-elevation areas of Mount Washington were nearing 50 degrees.

There was a lot of that this winter. And while above-average temps provide comfortable conditions for recreating outside and soft, playful conditions for cruising down the mountain, these warm days in the depth of winter teeter on bizarre.

This feeling, according to festival participant and climate scientist Dr. Elizabeth Burakowski, can be referred to as “solastalgia,” a combination of “solace” and the Greek root “-algia” to describe a form of emotional distress caused by environmental change.

“When I see the loss of snow and cold conditions, when it’s just like perpetual twig season, it doesn’t feel like home anymore,” Burakowski said. “It doesn’t feel like the New Hampshire I grew up with in terms of winters, and that can lead to these feelings of mourning.”

According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the 2023-24 winter season was the warmest winter on record in the last 129 years, since record keeping began. This was the subject of Dr. Burakowski’s presentation at the High George Jamboree, a highly anticipated celebration which caps off the four-day ski festival.

A research assistant professor at the University of New Hampshire in the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, Burakowski has been studying winter climate change in the Northeast since 2008.

During her short presentation, Burakowski described major trends she and other scientists have observed over the past several decades — a shortening of the winter season by three weeks, both the loss of cold and snow, as well as fewer extreme cold snaps — findings published in a 2022 study Burakowski co-authored, “Future of Winter in Northeastern North America.”

Perhaps the most shocking trend is that, since 1970, locations in the Northeast and the Great Lakes region have warmed faster than any other regions in the country. According to Climate Central, an independent nonprofit that researches and reports facts on climate change, the Northeast region has warmed, on average, 4.6°F from 1970 to 2022 compared to the national average of 3.8°F. Additionally, within the top-five winter warming locations measured were Burlington, Vermont (7.7°F) and Concord, New Hampshire (6.6°F).

“New England is a hot spot for winter warming,” Burakowski said, acknowledging that the reasons are multifold.

For instance, the Northeast sits on the Gulf of Maine, which is one of the fastest-warming bodies of water on Earth right now. Winter warming may also be attributed to changes in circulation patterns, and therefore more exposure to warmer temps. Moreover, our atmosphere is warming. That heat has to go somewhere, and it looks like New England is likely harboring some of it.

Many attribute the warm weather of this winter to El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by the warming waters of the Pacific. Yet, Burakowski hesitates to blame it solely on El Niño since New England is far from the center of this action.

“It’s hard for me to say next year will be better. It’s hard for me to make any guarantees or predictions about what winters are going to be like. We know what the trend is, though.”

In the last 15 years, northern New Hampshire experienced only one winter that was cooler than the 20th-century average: 2015.

Much of Burakowski’s work involves examining possible scenarios for the future. She reported that under the most dire scenario — one in which the United States never signed the Paris Agreement and continues to burn fossil fuels with reckless abandon — New England would experience a shrinking of the winter footprint by six weeks to two months before the end of the century.

On the other hand, when people do act, then only another three weeks of warming may occur. “It’s not as simple as slowing the emissions,” Burakowski said. “Even if you’re putting less greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, you’re still adding to what’s there.”

So what does this mean for winter sports and recreation in New Hampshire?

According to the 2024-28 NH Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (SCORP), outdoor recreation spending increased 65% from 2019-2021 and employment in the recreation sector is projected to grow 10% from 2021 to 2031.

The SCORP, which is funded by the New Hampshire Division of Parks and Recreation, is a critical framework guiding outdoor recreation development in New Hampshire, and is essential for accessing federal funds such as those from the Land and Water Conservation Fund. It establishes a five-year action plan based on intensive public feedback and analysis of recreational needs and trends, setting statewide priorities to improve outdoor access and facilities, including helping the state adapt to warming trends.

The recent unprecedented spike in visitation to parks and protected areas across New Hampshire can partially be attributed to the COVID pandemic. Yet, these high numbers are likely here to stay. Regarding warming winters, New Hampshire is now seeing more people visiting for recreation than ever before, competing for fewer snow-covered days.

“We’re concerned about the visitor experience, the ecological integrity of our natural resources, and whether visitors are willing to return and keep participating in these activities,” said Maddie Smith, a Ph.D. candidate and graduate research assistant at UNH who assisted in this year’s SCORP research.

Prior to her Ph.D. work, Smith ran a program at UNH called Outdoor Adventures, providing introductory programming to college students in all areas of recreation.

Over six years, she began experiencing herself how the challenges presented by climate change made it more difficult to run various programs.

Smith connected with Dr. Michael Ferguson, associate professor in the Department of Recreation Management & Policy, and the principal investigator for the SCORP. Together, Ferguson and Smith developed the idea to assess both outdoor recreation providers’ and visitors’ perceptions of climate change impacts upon numerous elements of outdoor recreation, including shifting seasons, extreme weather events and warmer winters.

When asked about the most significant climate impacts on the outdoor recreation industry, providers — those managing outdoor recreation resources and providing outdoor recreation programming or opportunities in the state — cited shorter winter seasons (87%), damage to recreational infrastructure from storms (86%), fluctuating water levels (74%), warmer winter seasons (74%), and fewer days of snow/ice coverage (72%) as their top concerns.

With fewer days of snow and ice coverage, visitors have fewer opportunities to participate in winter activities, which, according to the report, continues to perpetuate an identified area of concern: overcrowding.

From Ferguson’s perspective, one of the biggest takeaways from this research is the difference in perceptions between providers and visitors. In the past, the difference was stark, where providers were very in tune with climate change impacts while visitors were oftentimes ignorant to those changes. Since the turn of the century, however, the gap in those perceptions has diminished significantly.

“These findings are a double-edged sword,” said Ferguson during a recent video call. “On one hand, it’s wonderful to see visitors becoming more educated and aware of these impacts. On the other hand, the reason they are likely becoming more aware is because these climate impacts are becoming so pervasive that they’re right in the visitor’s face. How can they miss it?” For Smith, the motivation to conduct this research came from her desire to support providers so they can continue to offer the highest-quality outdoor recreation opportunities.

The 2024-28 SCORP identifies three adaptation strategies pertaining to recreation and the environment, which included redeveloping recreation areas, fostering stewardship and strengthening interagency relationships.

“There is a limit in terms of adaptation,” Smith said. “At a certain point, it goes beyond what we can do to adapt, and I think it really begs the question, ‘What can we do to try and reverse some of these climate trends?’” Despite the troubling trends, Burakowski sees hope in proposed solutions, like those in the SCORP, that inform policies at the state and federal level as well as staunch advocacy from organizations like The Nature Conservancy, Ski NH, and Protect Our Winters.

“I’ve been really proud of the industry and the fact they’ve been able to speak up more about this and advocate for policy,” she said. “It’s not just something that contributes to lower emissions, but it also allows us to bring more green infrastructure to the state of NH and pull in the tourism that’s supporting ‘walkin’ the walk.’ That’s an important part of the equation, demonstrating that we can do that.”

But what will it take to preserve winter for the next generation of recreationists? Burakowski believes the further along states continue on this pathway of emitting greenhouse gases, the less likely that becomes.

“But it’s not something I want to think of as out of reach,” she said. “It’s something we should all be working towards.”

The 2023-24 winter season was the warmest winter on record in the last 129 years.