Happy New Year! This is the first column of 2024 and the last one before New Hampshire voters vote in the New Hampshire Primary. That should be a predictor of how fast politics will come at us this year.

The 2024 primary is unique because of the effort of the Democratic National Committee to rearrange the calendar, and President Biden’s refusal to participate. For an incumbent president to refuse to run either in Iowa’s strange caucus system or New Hampshire’s primary is a first. The effort of the Democratic establishment in the state to encourage a write-in of the president’s name will be an interesting test of its ability to communicate and the incumbent’s strength. If he wins on the write-in, it will be historic. If he does not, it will also be historic. In any event, New Hampshire Democrats should turn out and vote, which is the best thing they can do to support our primary.

The greater drama, of course, is on the Republican side. As this column is written, Nikki Haley has tightened the race with former President Trump, DeSantis seems to be rearranging the deck chairs on his Titanic, and Chris Christie continues to openly express opposition to Trump, in an admirably direct and accurate way.

After Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed Haley, other New Hampshire Republicans from varied parts of the party chimed in, and she rose in the polls to within striking distance of Trump. The drama will be to see whether this trend continues, and whether unaffiliated voters (the New Hampshire term for independents) will take GOP ballots at the polls and vote for Haley, as a way of expressing their displeasure with Trump, or whether all of this, plus other events, will inspire Trump voters to turn out in record numbers and help him win the primary.

A Trump loss would be the political equivalent of an earthquake, given all the hype previously of his insurmountable lead. Time will tell.

In an op-ed in the Union Leader on Dec. 17, former Chief Justice John Broderick posed a number of questions about “did you ever think you would see a candidate for President say…?” referring to things former President Trump has said in the election or experienced in all his legal difficulties. Notwithstanding all of his extreme and irresponsible statements, his indictments or difficulties in civil cases, a large number of Americans seem to support Trump. For those who do not, this is inexplicable and dangerous. New Hampshire voters have a chance to say that Trump is unacceptable by voting for an alternative. If they stay home, however, that message will not be sent.

Colorado’s Supreme Court made a surprising ruling that Trump cannot appear on its primary ballot, since the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and his actions amounted to his participating in an insurrection against the U.S.

Later in December, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled the opposite way. Many politicians, pro- and anti-Trump, stated that he should be judged at the ballot box, not eliminated by court decision. Ultimately, it is the voters in contests like the New Hampshire Primary, who will decide on candidates, not the courts.

Many observers think the New Hampshire primary is past its prime, and that the retail politics that have been its hallmark are no longer effective. In this age of big money, social media and ever-present messaging, things are different. However, New Hampshire voters have the chance to reinvigorate the primary in a number of ways this year.

If President Biden wins the write-in, a message of relevance will have been sent to him and the national Democratic Party that New Hampshire matters. If President Biden fails to win, the voters will have sent a message about his strength as a candidate that he and Democrats should take to heart.

If Haley, by some miracle, beats Trump in New Hampshire, the inevitability myth may have been exploded, and the GOP may have the chance to nominate someone with broad support from Republicans and conservative to moderate independents who cannot support Trump, giving the GOP candidate a good chance to win.

There is a chance for 2024 to be one of the most significant New Hampshire presidential primaries in history, or if voters do not turn out and the expected happens, it may continue to be seen as having less significance than before. Everyone needs to vote.

After the primary is over, the state campaigns will pick up as candidates for governor, Congress and state offices step up their campaigns. As the first biennial election in eight years without an incumbent governor running, both parties eye the statehouse corner office as attainable. The campaigns in each party will be hard-fought and expensive, and already on the GOP side, attacks are being aimed at Kelly Ayotte by former state Senate President Chuck Morse, who endorsed Trump for president and claimed the better-financed Ayotte was “the most liberal Republican senator” when she was in the U.S. Senate, something liberals in Washington might find amusing.

It should be an interesting year!

Brad Cook is a Manchester attorney. The views expressed in this column are his own. He can be reached at bradfordcook01@gmail.com.