Whether they sell books, lip balm or maple syrup, New Hampshire’s retailers are indicating strong sales of their goods this holiday season, with a national report predicting that consumers’ seasonal spending could reach record numbers by the end of the year.
“We expect December to be good,” said Michael Herrmann, owner of Gibson’s Bookstore in Concord. “There were a couple of weeks in October that felt a little soft, and sometimes that’s a leading indicator of what the season’s going to be like, but then it picked up.”
In a Nov. 2 report, the National Retail Federation (NRF) — a Washington, D.C.-based trade association — forecast the potential for holiday spending to grow 3% to 4% year-over-year, returning sales growth to pre-pandemic levels. National retail shopping figures could range from $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, up from $929.5 billion in 2022, NRF stated. (Those figures exclude vehicle dealers, gas stations and restaurants.)
“Since COVID, our sales are up, and I’ve heard that from other independent bookstores as well,” Herrmann said of his storied business. “We think that we’re definitely going to be above pre-COVID levels. Last year was the best December the store had ever had in terms of sales. We’re just hoping to match that, to be honest.”
The holiday season is typically defined as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but consumers have aimed to pick their presents earlier than in years past, a buying habit that Curtis Picard, president of the NH Retail Association, says was encouraged during supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic.
“You see that retailers now have advertised their Black Friday deals well in advance and make them available before Black Friday,” Picard said. “So, the focus on Black Friday has changed and is not as important of a factor in holiday shopping.”
An NRF holiday survey conducted in the first week of October among just over 8,100 adult consumers indicates that 43% of shoppers planned to begin buying for the holidays before November.
But where some businesses sought out those early-season consumers, maple syrup producer Ben’s Sugar Shack, which sells its products widely across the state and ships nationwide, is gearing up for later sales next month, company owner Ben Fisk noted.
That’s in large part due to Ben’s launching the 3,000-square-foot Maple Station Market, a shared retail, deli and syrup production space in Temple on State Route 101 tentatively opening in mid-December.
“We’re going to be making food and selling that, and it’ll have a farmstand vibe to it,” Fisk said. “We’re hoping this kind of helps develop our brand name to more people, or just having a better facility to show our customers (in the general public) and our wholesale customers.”
Revenue for the burgeoning business has held steady, Fisk said, with local stores and a company gift shop that carries Ben’s syrup “doing well,” though he declined to share any hard numbers on company finances.
For Badger, a Monadnock Region skin care and sunscreen manufacturer whose items are sold in small businesses and big-box stores in the Granite State and around the country, it’s “a bit too soon to tell” the impact of the holiday season for inventory sold at retail, according to Iris Piedmont-Fleischmann, Badger’s sales director.
“Our (fourth-quarter) sales are on track so far,” she wrote in a Nov. 20 email. “On the (business-to-business) side, our gift set sales are trending up versus last year.”
Badger has seen its greatest successes with items priced under $20, a trend the company says has persisted over the last few years. That aligns with the buying patterns NH Retail Association’s Curtis Picard said his association has observed in the state, with consumers affected by ongoing inflationary pressure.
“Although inflation has come down, there’s still inflation (happening), which means prices are still rising,” he said. “They’re just not rising as quickly as they were a year ago or 18 months ago when it was 8-9%.”
Nonetheless, shoppers nationally plan to spend about $875 this season on holiday items, the October NRF survey reported, up from about $833 last year but not quite at spending levels from 2019-2021. About 70% of that $875 will go to gifts, with the remaining estimated total being used for decorations and food.
Reagan Briere arranges and places items in the “sidelines” display area, a section of constantly changing non-book gift items near the checkout counter at Gibson’s Bookstore in Concord on Nov. 27
Jan Desmond’s store falls somewhere in the middle of those categories, being the franchisee of Kilwins Candy & Ice Cream Shoppe in Portsmouth.
She said her business’s holiday surge is right around the corner, illustrated by a recent order of 110 candy gift boxes a corporate customer purchased.
“That was for Thanksgiving; that wasn’t even for Christmas,” said Desmond, who’s also a member of the board of directors for the NH Retail Association.
To accommodate, she’s been actively bringing in new employees and had a nearly full staff as of Nov. 16, some of whom are seasonal workers.
“We are constantly filling our shelves, so if someone were to come in today and buy everything that I have of a certain item, we would move that to the top of the list of things we have to make sure we try not to run out of,” she said.
At Badger, meanwhile, Piedmont-Fleischmann said the company has developed purchasing techniques to reduce any supply chain hurdles, and that it’s currently drawing customers’ attention to seasonal-only items on a “while supplies last” basis.
If there’s any concern that seems to unite Granite State retailers this year, it’s concern about the wintry weather.
“Being in northern New England, weather can always play a huge factor with holiday shopping,” Picard said. “If there’s bad weather on Black Friday weekend or the last full weekend before Christmas, that can really impact sales.”
Mother Nature was the only obstacle Desmond cited when asked about challenges her store could face that might hamper sales during what she considers the Portsmouth Kilwins’ “busy season,” but she noted the past few years haven’t seen significant snowstorms.
Michael Herrmann said no matter the conditions, the displays and shelves at Gibson’s Bookstore are fully stocked for hopeful gift-buyers.
“When you’re a single store in one location, weather can be such a determining factor,” he said. “We’ve been lucky with the weather for the last few years, so I don’t know what to expect, but we’ll see.”