New report shows Granite State is fourth in the nation for lack of housing
A new report on the nation’s housing shortage ranks New Hampshire fourth among states where the need for owned and rental property has accelerated.
The second-annual report from Up for Growth ranks the Granite State behind California, Utah and Idaho where the underproduction of housing is the most severe. New Hampshire (along with Idaho) are new to the top 10 since the first Up for Growth needs assessment in 2019.
Up for Growth describes itself as “a national, cross-sector member network committed to solving the housing shortage and affordability crisis through data-driven research and evidence-based policy.”
The ranking reflects the housing needs against population size. In its report, “Housing Underproduction in the U.S. 2023,” Up for Growth cited New Hampshire as needing 31,000 housing units.
That number is even higher than the 23,669 housing units cited in a locally produced multiagency report from January.
That report, “How Much Housing Does NH Need?”, said the state’s immediate need is for 12,764 owner units (homes/condos) and 10,905 rental units.
Through 2030, it said the state is projected to need 59,934 units, then another 28,461 between 2030 and 2040.
That particular report came from the NH Council on Housing Stability, as prepared by the Strafford Regional Planning Commission, the NH Office of Planning and Development, and NH Housing.
Nationwide struggles
The new national numbers inclusive of New Hampshire come as no surprise to Max Latona, executive director of the Center for Ethics in Society at Saint Anselm College in Manchester. He is one of the leading advocates for statewide policy changes that encourage the construction of more housing, particularly affordable housing.
The fact that New Hampshire ranked No. 4 in the nation surprises him and helps validate a message he and others have been preaching for many months: The state has a critical need for housing and policy changes that are needed locally and at the state level to get more units built.
“In New Hampshire, the shortage is extreme,” Latona said. “New Hampshire is a beautiful state, and we love our housing stock, but it’s become really restrictive, and it’s made it hard to build new homes.”
The Up for Growth report puts the state’s needs in a nationwide context. It looked at housing underproduction from 2012-2021 and found underproduction reaching 3.9 million homes in 2021, a 3% jump from 2019.
A COVID pandemic population shift created housing overstock in metropolitan areas but a housing shortage in the suburbs and rural areas, such as the Granite State.
“The COVID-19 pandemic enabled thousands of Americans, abruptly freed from the need to go into offices every day, to abandon high-cost urban centers in favor of suburbs, small towns, and rural communities where the housing crisis has intensified,” said Mike Kingsella, chief executive officer of Up for Growth, in a statement accompanying the report’s release.
Up for Growth said the 10 states with the most severe housing underproduction were, in order of severity: California, Idaho, Utah, New Hampshire, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona and New Jersey. New to the top 10 since 2019 are Idaho and New Hampshire. Falling out of the top 10 since 2019 are Massachusetts and Washington, D.C.
“Not a single state is providing enough housing for its citizens, and the nation is poorer, less diverse and less dynamic than it could be if everyone who wanted it had access to affordable shelter in high-opportunity areas,” said Kingsella.
“Policymakers must make the straightforward but difficult choice to prioritize new funding sources that allow for diverse housing types, to invest in construction innovations, and to bolster infrastructure funding despite the risks posed by NIMBY opposition,” he added. “Only then will we slow the pace of housing underproduction and, over time, begin to reverse it.”
NH’s Zoning Atlas
The more micro look at New Hampshire’s housing issues was released in May, the work of the Center for Ethics in Society at Saint Anselm College, NH Housing, and the NH Department of Business and Economic Affairs.
The Zoning Atlas provides a digital, multilayered graphical display of all New Hampshire housing districts, town by town, zone by zone. In all, 269 jurisdictions are detailed, encompassing 2,139 districts, 23,000 pages of zoning regulations, and 400,000 pieces of data. It offers a graphical view of why the lack of affordable workforce housing has become such an important issue in the Granite State by showing just how restrictive zoning is in many places.
The Zoning Atlas, according to Latona, has since its release been a catalyst for discussion both at the state Legislature level and more locally among town zoning boards. Its release in May came after the bulk of action during the 2023 legislative session and after local town meetings where zoning changes are often enacted.
Latona expects more action with the 2024 legislative session and spring town meetings. He said he’s already seeing movement on both the state and local levels.
He said, for instance, that legislators are looking at proposals that affect accessory dwelling units (ADU) on residential property and ease the current regulations on such things as minimum square footage.
He cited several communities at the local level that are using the Zoning Atlas to reassess their local zoning to allow for more diverse housing.
Communities such as Plymouth, he said, are using money from a state grant to hire a consultant to look at what zoning changes might be possible to open the opportunities for more housing.
A big question, according to Latona, is how much the state should mandate zoning over local control. For Latona, the idea of government overreach in this case lies with municipalities, not the state.
“There’s a number of people who care very deeply about what they call local control, which is just to protect the autonomy of our communities in New Hampshire to make their own decisions about zoning and housing regulation, and I understand that and I appreciate that,” said Latona.
“The problem is I think we need to communicate with these individuals and let them know that communities are behaving very badly in the sense that their zoning is too restrictive and exclusive. It’s not only hurting everybody in the state, but it’s also an example of what I call government overreach, believe it or not,” he added. “When you have an entity that is telling its individuals who want to get homes on their property, want to ease the housing shortage, want to develop their property, and they’re telling them you can’t do that, that’s an example of government overreach.”
Latona said the Zoning Atlas is being updated with zoning changes that have occurred since data was first collected.
“For example, Manchester, Enfield, and Newmarket have all streamlined their ADU ordinance to allow ADUs to be built more easily in their community. So that’s an important note,” said Latona. “Most people don’t realize that accessory dwelling units are an easy way to develop new, smaller, more affordable homes in a community without bulldozing new land.”
The continuing discussion about the need for housing is underscored each month by release of sales data each month from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors (NHAR).
The association’s September report showed affordability of a single-family home remained at an historic low as the median price of those sales hit an all-time September high at $490,000.
The New Hampshire affordability index was 59 for the second consecutive month, according to the September report, equaling the lowest point in NHAR’s recorded history and a 15% drop from September 2022. That means the state’s median household income is just 59% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates.
