Despite the increase in Covid-19 cases, you could say the economic downturn is over in New Hampshire, at least for now.
Fewer Granite Staters are collecting unemployment now than when the pandemic-induced recession began. Even though the unemployment rate ticked up a point to 3% in August, more recent unemployment claim numbers show continued improvement.
At the beginning of September, 3,551 individuals were collecting unemployment. That’s more than a thousand fewer than the previous week and more than 600 fewer than pre-pandemic levels. In the week through Sept. 11, 360 new jobless claims were filed, compared to 587 before the pandemic hit in the first months of 2020. Despite weekly adjustments, that number has been going down for months.
However, the downward trend appears to contradict the latest jobs report, released on Tuesday, which showed a slight uptick in the jobless rate, though it’s still way below the 6.6% rate of August 2020, not to mention the 16% rate back in April 2020.
The difference may be more than timing.
Official unemployment rates are based on both claims data and federal surveys of some New Hampshire households, statistically adjusted. The state Department of Employment Services has complained about the federal data for months now, complaining about the lack of transparency and how these adjustments are made.
This controversy doesn’t just involve the rate but also the seasonally adjusted numbers. For instance, the seasonal numbers show a loss of 700 jobs from July to August, but unemployment claims fell by 40%, the department reported.
“In fact, the federal numbers have been showing an employment decline since February, despite unemployment claims falling by over 40,000 during this same time period,” writes Brian Gottlob, an economist with the state Department of Employment Security.
Gottlob said state officials would be meeting with federal officials to better understand the discrepancy.
Monthly figures also point to which sectors are growing and shrinking. For instance, construction gained 1,200 jobs in a single month, though only 500 jobs since last year, seasonally adjusted, whereas the leisure and hospitality industry dropped 1,200 jobs compared to July, but gained 12,600 since the start of the year.
Wages have also been creeping up. The average hourly earnings in August were $31.12 an hour, compared to $29.87 a year before. The biggest increase was in business and professional services, at $36.17 an hour, compared to $33.79 an hour previously. Trade workers, which include retail and warehouse workers, averaged $27.10, a raise of less than 50 cents. For healthcare workers and schoolteachers, they’re now making $32.48 an hour, up by a little more than a dollar.
— BOB SANDERS
