The state’s revenue picture for the final three quarters of the fiscal year is not projected to be as grim as it appeared earlier this year.

In an update in November to the House and Senate Ways and Means Committees, the Department of Revenue Administration indicated the rooms and meals tax has been most impacted by the pandemic, while other revenue streams are expected to produce significantly more revenue than anticipated when the budget was approved in September 2019.

The pandemic, unlike recent recessions, has not uniformly slowed businesses activity, said DRA Commissioner Lindsey Stepp. Some segments like hospitality have seen a significant impact, but many large manufacturers or retailers have experienced greater economic activity, she said.

The result is a mixed bag for state revenues as the department projects either a $56.3 million revenue shortfall at $1.68 billion or a $15.9 million surplus at $1.75 billion for the 2021 fiscal year.

“We have no idea what the future holds and no road map on how this pandemic will impact revenues,” Stepp said, but noted other states are in similar situations expecting significant shortfalls, but generally seeing revenues performing better than expected.

Complicating this fiscal year’s revenue picture was a $30.8 million adjustment of taxes collected this fiscal year for activity in the prior fiscal year.

— GARRY RAYNO/INDEPTHNH.ORG